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U.S. Election of 2024: A Shocking Outcome and a Familiar Lesson from 1992.
Shy Trumpers the new Shy Tories ? And one lucky Trader who found the hidden gem in a sea of polling data.
The result of the 2024 U.S. election has captured the attention of America and the world, defying pre-election polls and predictions. As analysts, pundits, and voters reflect on the unexpected outcome, it’s hard not to feel a sense of déjà vu. This election brings to mind the 1992 UK general election, where polling data suggested a victory for Labour’s Neil Kinnock, only for John Major’s Conservative Party to emerge triumphant. Much like 2024 in the U.S., the UK’s 1992 election served as a wake-up call on the unpredictability of voter sentiment and the challenges pollsters face in accurately gauging public opinion.
The unexpected Conservative win in 1992 led pollsters to reassess their methodologies, particularly regarding the so-called “shy conservative” factor. Polls had underestimated Conservative support, partly because some right-leaning voters were reluctant to disclose their preferences. In response, polling organizations refined their methods, introducing new techniques to account for hidden preferences that might otherwise distort results. For instance, they adjusted for social desirability bias — the tendency of respondents to offer answers that align with social expectations…
